By Bonnie K. Goodman
Are the news media election polls biased?
A new Quinnipiac University poll shows Presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton and Republican nominee Donald Trump in a dead heat a sharp contrast to recent polls where Clinton led by wide margins, June 29, 2016
Presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton is in a dead heat with rival presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump. According to a new national Quinnipiac University poll released on Wednesday morning, June 29, 2016, Clinton leads Trump by only two percent. The poll also determined that voters find neither candidate would be a “good president.” The poll’s results show a disparity between two other recent national polls conducted by new media outlets, begging the question are the news media’s polls biased overly favoring Clinton at Trump’s expense.
The new Quinnipiac University poll has Clinton with 42 percent support to Trump’s 40 percent. Clinton’s lead is shrinking since the last Quinnipiac poll from May. Then Clinton 45 percent support to Trump’s 41 percent. Clinton still leads Trump by two percent if the third-party candidates, including Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, are factored in, then Clinton leads Trump
There are clear demographic and gender divisions among the electorate. Trump has more support from men 47 percent to 34 percent, while Clinton has a majority support from women 50 percent to Trump’s 33 percent. Trump main support from male voters comes from white men 56 percent to Clinton’s 25 percent. Clinton has the support 49 percent of white female voters to Trump’s 39 percent.
Clinton has a monopoly on minority voters. Clinton particularly has the support of black voters with 91 percent support, while only one percent of African American voters support Trump. The numbers are less lopsided among Hispanic voters, where Clinton has 50 percent support to Trump’s 33 percent.
Clinton also has support from the country’s more educated electorate; 47 percent of Clinton supporters have college degrees while only 37 percent of Trump’s supporters. Clinton has the support of younger voters between the ages of 18 to 34, 48 percent to 23 percent, and also Clinton has an edge among those aged 35 to 49 with 47 percent support to Trump’s 37 percent. Trump has the support of the older electorate, with 45 percent among those in the ages of 50 and 64 to Clinton’s 39 percent, and those older than 65 with 51 percent to Clinton’s 35 percent.
Voters do not think Trump or Clinton would be a good president and neither are they looking forward to voting for them. A majority 53 percent believe Clinton would not be a good president, with 58 percent feeling the same way about Trump. However, 87 percent of Democrats think Clinton would be a good president while 77 percent of Republicans think Trump would be.
Meanwhile, 45 percent of voters would never vote for Clinton, with 49 percent of independents saying they would never vote for Clinton and 53 percent of male voters. The number is higher for Trump with 48 percent saying they would never vote for him, with 47 percent of independents saying that and 56 percent of female voters. This feeling also flowed over in the candidate favorable and unfavorable ratings. Clinton’s rating is 37 percent to 57 percent with Trump’s rating is 34 percent to 57 percent.
The Quinnipiac University poll contrasts with two other national polls published this past week showing there is bias in the polls. According to a Washington Post/ABC News survey published on Sunday, June 26, 2016, Clinton leads Trump by 12 percent, 51 to 39 percent. While a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll also published Sunday, Clinton leads Trump by only 5 percent, 46 to 41 percent. Now this new poll shows the candidates are in a dead heat. All three polls were taken around the same time.
Although Trump’s support numbers vary within the margin of error, Clinton’s margin over Trump, however, were boosted in the two previous polls. In the ABC News/Washington Post poll and NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey more Democrats were sampled especially the one conducted by ABC News and Washington Post, where the sample included 10 percent more Democrats polled than Republicans.
The Washington Post has a reason to be biased against Trump; he banned them from his campaign, and now called the poll “dirty,” because of the blatantly unrealistic results. Meanwhile, Quinnipiac tried to be fair sampling 31 percent Democrats to 28 percent Republicans.