FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver is almost never wrong, and now he is predicting a landslide election. Silver appeared on ABC‘s Good Morning America Wednesday morning, June 29, 2016, where he announced presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton has a 79 percent chance of winning the election. The prediction is a part of FiveThirtyEight’selection forecast.
Silver predicted to host George Stephanopoulos on ABC’s “Good Morning America” Clinton has a 79 chance of winning and presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trumponly has only a 20 percent chance of winning.
Silver explained, “Here’s how to think about it: We’re kind of at halftime of the election right now, and she’s taking a seven-point, maybe a 10-point lead into halftime. There’s a lot of football left to be played, but she’s ahead in almost every poll, every swing state, every national poll.”
Silver indicated “both candidates have a lot of room to grow,” but history is not on Trump’s side. The only time a candidate squandered a lead like Clinton was in 1988. Then another Democrat then Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis was leading the polls before Republican and Vice President at the time George H.W. Bush went on to win the election. Bush, however, was a one-term president after Democrat and Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton beat him in 1992.
Silver pointed out that many solidly Republican states are coming into play. Silver said, “It’s been a crazy year, politically. For example, Arizona looks like a toss-up. Maybe Georgia. Maybe Missouri, North Carolina again.” The same can be said of some solidly Democratic states. Silver explained, “Likewise, if Trump gains ground on Clinton then maybe a state like Maine – used to be a swing state, not so recently” – could be in play, too.”
Speaking of the presumptive GOP nominee, “Trump has never been ahead of Clinton in the general election campaign. He did a great job of appealing to the 40 percent of the GOP he had to win the election, the primary — a lot different than winning 51 percent of 100 percent.”
Silver is usually right in his predictions, in 2008 he “called 49 out of 50 states correctly” and predicted all 50 states in 2012. Silver, however, was wrong once this year, he did not believe Trump would become the GOP’s nominee. In August 2015, Silver predicted that Trump had only a two percent chance of becoming the Republican nominee.
Silver had to explain his inaccurate prediction on GMA, saying, “That wasn’t based on looking at polls. Trump was always ahead in the polls, and one big lesson of his campaign is don’t try and out-think the polls and try and out-think the American public.”